US Dollar (USD) rose overnight but range remains confined to recent levels. DXY last at 98.28 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum turned mild bullish

"Markets are still waiting to see how NFP data (Friday) and BLS prelim benchmark revision to establishment survey (next Wed) turn out to be. The latter will show a revision to payrolls in the 12months to Mar-2025 by reconciling monthly payroll data to Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for 1Q 2025. This QCEW data is based on state unemployment insurance tax records that almost all employers are required to file."

"Official benchmark revision will be available in Feb 2026 data but the prelim report at this point will give an indication on how robust or weak the labour market is. To recap, the March 2024 payrolls benchmark was revised down by 598K, and in 2023, it was revised down by 187K. Softer data print may potentially change the narrative and weigh on USD. In particular, we will be on the lookout for any pick-up in discussion for a jumbo 50bp cut at September FOMC."

"Daily momentum turned mild bullish while the rise in RSI moderated. 2-way risks likely. Resistance at 98.70 (100 DMA) and 99.60 (23.6% fibo retracement of 23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 98.00/20 levels (21, 50 DMAs), 97.50 and 97.10 levels. Data focus this week is on JOLTS job openings report, Fed’s Beige Book (today); ADP employment, ISM services, initial jobless claims (Thursday) and more importantly, NFP report (Friday). On Fedspeaks, Musalem, Williams and Goolsbee are lined up this week before Fedspeaks go into a communication blackout on 6 September."