EUR/USD is edging lower, driven both by the dollar and fading prospects of any near-term improvement in Ukraine, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Powell's tone may push EUR/USD back to the 1.1500/1520 area

"Elsewhere, the EU and US put some more flesh on the bones of a trade deal yesterday. Europe would like to move on, but there still seems to be some uncertainty as to whether pharma and semiconductor tariffs will be capped at 15% or whether US Section 232 investigations could result in higher tariffs after all."

"For today, Powell's tone will determine whether EUR/USD has to trade all the way back to the 1.1500/1520 area, which is the outside risk should he manage to swing market pricing back to 50:50 for a restart to the Fed easing cycle in September."