Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke at the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of Indianapolis Annual Lunch on Thursday. He said that inflation seems to have stalled and that, for inflation, we've set a 2% target; 3% inflation is too high.

Key takeaways

Part of the job of the Fed is to be the steady hand.

For inflation, we've set a 2% target, and 3% inflation is too high.

We made a sacred promise of 2% inflation.

Inflation seems to have stalled.

A little uneasy on inflation.

Longer-term believe rates can go down a full amount.

Employment near full employment.

Uneasy frontloading rate cuts and counting on transitory inflation.

Official data is a big mess, because the lights went out.

While in official data dark, I was more paranoid about the inflation side, since there's less data.

Wouldn't see inflation side falling apart, possibly for months, made me even more uneasy.

Notable slowdown in the number of jobs created.

Dubious that slowdown in payrolls points to a recession.

Low hiring, low firing environment is a sign of uncertainty.

If government can tell central bank what to do with interest rates, inflation rises, growth is slower.

It would pain me, and markets, if the Fed lost independence.

Not worried about that.

Boom in data centers makes it a little harder to gauge where we are in the business cycle.

AI investment raises concerns of possible bubble.”