GBP/USD treads water above 1.3150 as Fed rate cuts climb

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GBP/USD holds gains as the US Dollar inches lower amid increasing Fed rate cut bets in December.
CME FedWatch Tool suggests pricing in 71% odds of a Fed rate cut in December, up from 66% a day ago.
The Pound Sterling may weaken as rising expectations for BoE rate cuts were driven by softer inflation data.

GBP/USD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.3160 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid improving Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in 71% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, up from 66% the previous day.

However, the GBP/USD pair lost ground as the Greenback received support following comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, noting that the central bank is struggling to balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment due to limited data availability amid the ongoing US government shutdown. Powell cautioned that policymakers may have to adopt a wait-and-see approach until official data reporting resumes. He also added that another rate cut in December is far from certain, emphasizing that the outlook remains uncertain.

The US Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, lowering its benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%–4.0% in a 10–2 vote. The decision was not unanimous, as Fed Governor Stephen Miran supported a larger 50-basis-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) faced challenges as growing expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts were fueled by softer inflation data, with the BRC reporting further declines in food price inflation. Additionally, concerns mounted that the upcoming November budget could significantly weigh on economic growth.

During Wednesday’s parliamentary session, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to rule out potential increases in income tax, national insurance, or value-added tax. Meanwhile, reports indicated that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) plans to downgrade the UK’s productivity growth forecast by about 0.3%, a revision that could result in a £20 billion shortfall in public finances.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.