NZD/USD stays near 0.5700 as Trump removes tariffs on New Zealand exports

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NZD/USD received support after President Trump removed tariffs on roughly $1.25 billion of New Zealand exports.
The New Zealand Dollar could weaken as sluggish data boosts expectations of an RBNZ 25-basis-point rate cut this month.
Traders await delayed US economic data after the government’s reopening, seeking clearer signals on Fed policy.

NZD/USD gained for the second successive session, trading around 0.5680 during the European hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD)after US President Donald Trump on Friday lifted tariffs on New Zealand exports worth about NZ$2.21 billion ($1.25 billion) annually. On Sunday, New Zealand welcomed the US decision but said it hopes all remaining additional tariffs on its goods will also be lifted.

However, the NZD may face challenges as weaker economic data reinforced expectations of an imminent 25-basis-point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) later this month. New Zealand’s Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) rose to 48.7 in October from 48.3 in September, but remained stuck in contraction for 20 straight months and stayed well below the long-term average of 52.8. Food Price Index declined 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) in October, against September’s 0.4% decline.

However, the upside of the NZD/USD pair as the US Dollar (USD) gains amid diminishing likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December. Traders are preparing for a wave of delayed United States (US) economic data after the government’s reopening, looking for clearer signals on Fed policy.

The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 46% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from the 67% probability that markets priced a week ago.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.