NZD/USD surges toward 0.5850 near four-month highs

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NZD/USD extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around 0.5830 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates to near four-month highs as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure from rising uncertainty over the US–Greenland issue.

NZD/USD rises toward four-month highs as the USD weakens amid rising US–Greenland uncertainty.
BusinessNZ PSI rose to 51.5 in December, returning to expansion but remaining below its long-term average.
The People’s Bank of China kept one-year and five-year LPRs unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.

US President Donald Trump threatened on Saturday that 10% tariff would be levied on goods from European Union (EU) members, effective February 1, until the US is permitted to purchase Greenland. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly urged the European Union to activate its “trade bazooka,” a measure that could restrict US access to EU markets or impose export controls, among other potential countermeasures.

The Kiwi Dollar also strengthened after the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) climbed to 51.5 in December 2025 from 46.9 in November, returning to expansion and ending the longest contraction streak since the survey began, though it remains below its long-term average of 52.8. Traders have shifted their focus to the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report later in the week. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 0.5% QoQ in Q4.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Tuesday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. It is essential to note that any changes in the Chinese economy could impact the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), as both countries are close trading partners.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.