Oil prices climbed sharply, with Brent rising toward multi‑week highs near the mid‑$60s as escalating unrest in Iran and the threat of U.S. tariffs on countries trading with Tehran boosted supply disruption fears and added a geopolitical risk premium to crude markets, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.

Trump’s tariff threats on Iran trade add risk premium

"Oil prices climbed to a two-month high as markets fretted over potential supply disruptions from escalating civil unrest in Iran. Any disruption could threaten up to 3.5mb/d of output, with nearly 2mb/d reaching global markets."

"President Trump intensified pressure on Iran, announcing a 25% tariff on goods from countries 'doing business' with Tehran. Rising geopolitical risk could push Brent toward USD70/bbl in the near term. However, OPEC+’s ability to raise supply should limit the risk of a sharp price spike."

"We maintain our forecast for Brent outlook to remain subdued but bottom near USD59/bbl by year-end, pending clarity on Venezuela’s new government and resource policy. OPEC’s pause in quota hikes supports soft floor for Brent in high-USD50s."