According to Bloomberg data, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports fell to an average of 3.12 million barrels per day in the past four weeks, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Russian oil exports hit four-month low

"This is the lowest level in more than four months. The increase in the production target set by OPEC+ has therefore not yet been reflected in higher oil shipments. One factor could be that Russia is unable to increase production as much as agreed because it first has to make compensatory cuts to offset previous overproduction."

"In addition, demand from Russian refineries has risen in recent weeks, reducing the quantity of oil available for export. The lower oil supply from Russia is probably one reason why oil prices have so far been able to absorb the significant increase in OPEC+ production so well."