Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tumbles below $39.00 ahead of US PCE inflation data

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The Silver price (XAG/USD) slumps to near $38.80 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The white metal edges lower amid some profit-taking and a stronger US Dollar (USD).

Silver price attracts some sellers to around $38.80 in Friday’s early European session, down 0.52% on the day.
US GDP expanded more than previously estimated in Q2.
Mounting bets of a Fed rate cut might cap Silver’s downside.

The Silver price (XAG/USD) slumps to near $38.80 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The white metal edges lower amid some profit-taking and a stronger US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for July later on Friday for fresh impetus.

The second estimate for US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025 showed an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, a stronger figure than initially estimated, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The upbeat US GDP report diminishes the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates to stimulate growth, supporting the USD and weighing on the USD-denominated commodity price.

Nonetheless, soft jobs data still has many traders anticipating a rate reduction at the Fed's upcoming September meeting. This, in turn, might cap the downside for the Silver price. New York Fed President John Williams said on Wednesday that it is likely interest rates can fall at some point, but policymakers will need to see the upcoming data to decide if it is appropriate to make a cut next month. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Silver, supporting the non-yielding white metal.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.