The federal government has been partially shut down for about three weeks now. Non-essential civil servants have been furloughed, while many essential government employees are still working but are going to miss their paycheck and possibly even their back wages, Rabobank's economists report.

FOMC stays on auto-pilot

"Some of the impact has been mitigated because the Trump administration is prioritizing the paychecks of the military. What’s more, a federal judge has prevented permanent layoffs for now."

"The standoff in Congress suggests that there is no reopening in sight until November. The Democrats want an extension of ACA benefits, but the Republicans don’t want to negotiate before the Democrats support a stopgap bill that ends the government shutdown."

"The FOMC will get the CPI report for September before the October meeting, but probably not the official Employment Report. Nevertheless, another rate cut in October seems likely. With no convincing evidence available that could make them either skip October or make a larger cut in October, the FOMC is on auto-pilot."