USD/CAD failed to clear the key 1.4150 trend-line barrier and is retreating toward the 200-DMA. A short-term bounce is possible, but a break below 1.3920/1.3880 could open the way for a broader downside move, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Pair slips toward 200-DMA support zone

"USD/CAD failed to overcome the interim hurdle near 1.4150 representing the descending trend line drawn since January and the low of February 2025. The pair has pulled back towards the 200-DMA near 1.3920/1.3880, which is also the lower limit of an ascending channel drawn since July."

"A brief rebound is likely; cross beyond 1.4150 will be crucial for confirming a larger uptrend. Inability to defend the moving average near 1.3920/1.3880 may lead to an extended decline."