The euro area's inflation figures may not be very exciting, but the US is returning from an extended Labour Day weekend today to start a busy week, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

USD is likely to weaken further

"While the focus will shift to the labour market in the coming days, today's ISM index for the manufacturing sector is in the spotlight. Two important questions are likely to arise: will the prices paid sub-component continue to rise, indicating an increase in inflationary pressure? And will the employment sub-component recover?"

"Recently, we have seen a worrying trend in the index: the employment component has collapsed while the prices paid component has risen significantly. This reflects market concerns that tariffs are increasing inflationary risks while the outlook for the labour market is deteriorating. If this trend continues, the USD is likely to weaken further."