• EUR/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note as geopolitical tensions boost the safe-haven USD.
• Soaring Oil prices fuel inflation fears, pushing US bond yields higher and further benefiting the buck.
• Concerns about the energy crisis weigh on the Euro and exert additional pressure on the currency pair.

The EUR/USD pair opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new week and dives to a fresh low since November 2025, around the 1.1520-1.1515 region, during the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside.

As investors look past Friday's dismal US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the escalating Middle East conflict revives demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. In fact, the US-Israel campaign against Iran enters its tenth ​day on Monday and continues to weigh on investors' sentiment. This is evident from a sea of red across the global equity markets and continues to benefit the USD status as the global reserve currency.

Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices surge past the $100 psychological mark amid concerns about supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have soared more than 25% since the onset of the war, causing sharp increases in fuel prices across the globe and fueling inflation concerns. This, in turn, forced investors to push back their expectations about the likely timing of the next rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and continue to lift the US Treasury bond yields higher, underpinning the USD.

Given Europe’s reliance on imported energy, a further rise in Crude and Natural Gas prices could act as a major economic shock. This turns out to be another factor that weighs on the shared currency and validates the negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair. Traders now look forward to this week's release of the latest US inflation figures for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and some meaningful impetus. The focus, however, will remain glued to geopolitical developments and Oil price dynamics.