GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sees fresh downside below 1.3300 amid geopolitical risks

المقالات الشائعة

The GBP/USD pair claws back its significant early losses during the European trading session on Monday, but is still 0.6% down to near 1.3400.

GBP/USD recovers some of its early losses, still holds significant amid the US-Iran war.
Middle East tensions will likely escalate further as Tehran pushes back hopes of negotiations with the US.
Investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for February.

The GBP/USD pair claws back its significant early losses during the European trading session on Monday, but is still 0.6% down to near 1.3400. The pair is still under pressure as the Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms due to risk-off market sentiment amid the war between the United States (US), Israel, and Iran.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.70%	0.57%	0.53%	0.12%	0.47%	0.67%	0.63%
EUR	-0.70%		-0.13%	-0.18%	-0.57%	-0.22%	-0.03%	-0.07%
GBP	-0.57%	0.13%		-0.04%	-0.45%	-0.10%	0.09%	0.06%
JPY	-0.53%	0.18%	0.04%		-0.39%	-0.05%	0.15%	0.12%
CAD	-0.12%	0.57%	0.45%	0.39%		0.35%	0.54%	0.51%
AUD	-0.47%	0.22%	0.10%	0.05%	-0.35%		0.20%	0.16%
NZD	-0.67%	0.03%	-0.09%	-0.15%	-0.54%	-0.20%		-0.04%
CHF	-0.63%	0.07%	-0.06%	-0.12%	-0.51%	-0.16%	0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

S&P 500 futures plunged almost 1% ahead of the US markets' opening, showing depressed appetite for risky assets. At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.6% higher to near 98.20.

On Saturday, the US and Israel launched a wave of strikes against Iran, which resulted in the execution of Tehran’s 48 top leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Fox News.

Meanwhile, the war is expected to escalate further as Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani has refused to come to the table for negotiations with the US on stopping the massacre.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for February, which will be published at 15:00 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in lower at 51.8 from 52.6 in January.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades sharply lower at around 1.3404 as of writing. The near-term bias turns bearish as spot extends below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which now caps recovery attempts around 1.35. The sequence of lower lows from the mid-1.36 area confirms an immediate downtrend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping below 40.00 after consolidating the 40.00-60.00 range for almost a month signals building downside pressure.

Initial resistance sits at the 20-day EMA near 1.3530, with a sustained break above that area needed to ease bearish pressure and reopen the 1.3650 region. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the intraday low of 1.3315. A daily close below that level would strengthen the current downswing and open the door towards the December 3 low of 1.3203.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

Why it matters to traders?

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.

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