Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that GBP/USD has risen above pre-war levels as United Kingdom (UK) local and Scottish elections test Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership. Haddad warns that a strong Green Party showing could push policy leftward and worsen fiscal concerns, with UK nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth running below 10-year gilt yields, posing a drag on the Pound (GBP).

Election risks and weak fiscal backdrop

"GBP/USD has rallied above pre-war levels. Today’s local and Scottish elections will test British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership."

"Starmer’s Labour Party is poised to get trounced when results start coming in early Friday morning."

"A strong showing from the Green party risks pulling the Labour government further to the left, raising concerns about UK fiscal credibility."

"Alarmingly, UK nominal GDP growth is tracking below 10-year gilt yields, making stopping debt growth very difficult which is drag on GBP."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)