Rabobank’s Michael Every highlights a key UK by‑election as a potential catalyst for Pound and Gilts volatility. Polls show Reform UK, Greens and Labour clustered around 27–28% support, implying any winner will represent a minority of voters. A victory for Reform UK or the Greens could be interpreted as an early signal for the May and 2029 UK elections.

Fragmented politics and market reaction risk

"There’s also a key UK by-election, which is taken as indicative of the country’s new fractured political landscape."

"The latest polls suggest Reform UK, the Greens, and Labour are all on around 27-28% of the vote, meaning that any winner would represent a minority of the electorate, and potentially from a party with policies far outside the UK’s recent Overton Window."

"A Reform or Green win in particular could see a market reaction if taken as a harbinger of where the UK is headed first in May and then in the 2029 general election."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)