AUD/USD Price Forecast: Retreats further from multi-week top but holds above 0.6900

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The AUD/USD pair builds on its modest weekly bearish gap opening and retreats further from a two-and-a-half-week top, near the 0.6970 region, touched on Friday. Spot prices drop to the 0.6930-0.6925 area during the Asian session as escalating US-Iran tensions underpin the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note as escalating US-Iran tensions boost the USD.
The recent repeated failures to make it through the 38.2% Fibo. level warrants caution for bulls.
A break below the 200-day SMA and the 50% Fibo. is needed to back the case for further losses.

Furthermore, a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices revives inflationary concerns and bolsters US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which provide an additional boost to the Greenback. However, a bullish technical setup warrants caution before confirming that the AUD/USD pair's recent recovery from a multi-month low, touched in June, has run out of steam.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair stays above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains marginally positive, hinting at a mild recovery and validating the positive outlook.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 still reflects only a tentative improvement from recently weak momentum. Furthermore, the recent repeated failures to break through the 38.2% Fibo. The level warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair as the market focus shifts to the latest US inflation figures this week.

In the meantime, immediate support is reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 0.6878, ahead of the 50.0% retracement level at 0.6849. A deeper protection emerges at the 61.8% Fibo. level around 0.6747, where buyers would be expected to reassert themselves on a more meaningful pullback.

On the flip side, a sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6951 is needed to back the case for additional gains towards the 23.6% retracement near 0.7077, which, if cleared, would give way to unlock a more decisive advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.18%	0.16%	0.23%	0.07%	0.26%	-0.07%	0.16%
EUR	-0.18%		-0.01%	0.04%	-0.11%	0.09%	-0.21%	-0.00%
GBP	-0.16%	0.01%		0.07%	-0.10%	0.14%	-0.18%	0.05%
JPY	-0.23%	-0.04%	-0.07%		-0.16%	0.04%	-0.26%	-0.01%
CAD	-0.07%	0.11%	0.10%	0.16%		0.20%	-0.08%	0.15%
AUD	-0.26%	-0.09%	-0.14%	-0.04%	-0.20%		-0.26%	-0.03%
NZD	0.07%	0.21%	0.18%	0.26%	0.08%	0.26%		0.24%
CHF	-0.16%	0.00%	-0.05%	0.01%	-0.15%	0.03%	-0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).