• AUD/USD loses ground as traders await RBA Minutes and China's PMI data.
• RBA Minutes could read hawkish if they highlight sticky inflation and the possibility of more tightening.
• China PMIs are key for AUD sentiment as stronger activity would support commodity-linked currencies.

AUD/USD trades near the 0.6880 level on Monday, down from Friday's close as traders await fresh catalysts from Australia and China. The Aussie remains under pressure after losing ground over the past month, while the US Dollar (USD) retains support as investors stay cautious ahead of key US labor market data later in the week.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock participated on Sunday in a panel titled “From Cash to Stablecoins: The Anonymity of Money” at the Per Jacobsson Foundation Lecture in Basel. The topic was more focused on payments and digital money than near-term rates, but markets will still watch the official transcript, which the RBA says will be released on Tuesday, for any comments linked to monetary policy, inflation or financial stability.

Attention now turns to the RBA Meeting Minutes due early Tuesday. The Minutes should give investors more detail on why the Board left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at the June meeting, following an earlier 75-basis-point rate increase. Bullock said after the decision that inflation “remains too high” and that holding rates would allow the Board to assess how earlier tightening is flowing through the economy.

China will also be important for the Aussie this week. The NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs are due on Tuesday. China’s official manufacturing sector PMI is expected to edge back into slight expansion at 50.1 in June, after standing at 50.0 in May. The Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly to 49.9 from 50.1. Stronger Chinese data could support the Australian Dollar given Australia’s close trade ties with China, while another soft reading would likely weigh on AUD sentiment.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6884, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it remains below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6898 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7002. The pair is pressing against immediate overhead supply at 0.6886, while a subdued Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.96 hints that sellers still retain the upper hand, even as downside momentum shows signs of moderation.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the nearby 0.6886 barrier, followed by the horizontal levels at 0.6904 and 0.6917, with the 20-period SMA at 0.6898 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7002 reinforcing a broader cap on recovery attempts. On the downside, the first notable support emerges at 0.6878, where a sustained break would open the way for a deeper slide in the pair in the coming sessions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)