Nomura strategists note Euro area business activity stayed in contraction in June, with the composite PMI at 49.5 despite a small rise. Price indices fell but remain well above 50, especially in manufacturing, leaving upward price pressures elevated compared with February and before the Iran war shock.

Euro area PMIs show contraction and price risks

"Euro area and UK business activity remained in contraction (below 50) according to the June PMI surveys, though the composite PMI output index rose in France and for the euro area as a whole."

"The euro area composite PMI output index rose 1.0pt to 49.5, above our and consensus expectations, and driven by the service sector, as the manufacturing output index was broadly unchanged."

"The price indices of the European June PMIs fell across every country and sector of the data published today, but all still point to rising prices (i.e. they are above 50)."

"The euro area composite input price index fell 5.2pts to 64.7 (but is still up 5.7pts compared with February) and the euro area composite output price index fell 1.7pts to 55.4 (but is 2.3pts higher than in February)."

"Upward price pressures remain clearest in the manufacturing sector, where both input and output price PMIs are very elevated compared with February."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)