Euro rises as traders expect US-Iran deal soon, USD slips

EUR/USD gains as Hormuz draft hopes offset White House denial

Headlines from the Middle East are driving the markets. Iran’s state TV revealed the contents of a draft that says Iran will restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, in exchange for the withdrawal of US military forces near Iran and the lifting of the blockade.

The draft excludes military vessels from sailing and would see Iran oversee shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz alongside Oman.

Recently, the White House denied the draft's contents, calling it a complete fabrication.

Data-wise, the US economic docket was light, with the ADP Employment Change 4-week average dipping from a revised 40.75K to 35.75K, yet showed that the labour market remains solid.

Meanwhile, Fed officials crossed the wires, led by Dallas Fed Lorie Logan, who refrained from discussing monetary policy but said that “if Strait of Hormuz stays blocked, world Oil and natural gas consumption could need to fall more meaningfully.” She added that “consequences would depend on whether end users can switch to other energy sources or use energy more efficiently.”

Her colleague, the Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari, said the balance of risks to the dual mandate suggests focusing on inflation. He added that it is too soon to predict the timing of Fed action.

Across the pond, the docket is absent, yet European Central Bank (ECB) member Stournaras hinted that a June rate hike is likely, aligning with other policymakers.

Ahead this week, the US economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders, jobs data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

In Europe, traders' focus would be on Business Climate and Consumer Sentiment polls, as well as the ECB's speaking schedule.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1634, holding just above the reclaimed uptrend support around 1.1578 while capped by the flattened 50/100/200-day simple moving average (SMA) cluster near 1.1663. This configuration leaves the near-term bias broadly neutral, with price oscillating between trend support and moving-average resistance. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 45 stays below the midline, hinting at only modest downside pressure rather than a decisive directional impulse.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the SMA cluster around 1.1663, a daily close above which would open the way toward the descending resistance trend line near 1.1811. On the downside, immediate support lies at the former breakout zone around 1.1578, with a sustained move beneath this level exposing deeper trendline-derived support closer to 1.1258.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.03%	0.12%	0.11%	0.14%	0.45%	-1.01%	0.06%
EUR	0.03%		0.15%	0.13%	0.16%	0.45%	-0.98%	0.09%
GBP	-0.12%	-0.15%		-0.04%	0.01%	0.32%	-1.12%	-0.04%
JPY	-0.11%	-0.13%	0.04%		0.04%	0.33%	-1.10%	-0.02%
CAD	-0.14%	-0.16%	-0.01%	-0.04%		0.30%	-1.12%	-0.06%
AUD	-0.45%	-0.45%	-0.32%	-0.33%	-0.30%		-1.42%	-0.33%
NZD	1.01%	0.98%	1.12%	1.10%	1.12%	1.42%		1.08%
CHF	-0.06%	-0.09%	0.04%	0.02%	0.06%	0.33%	-1.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).