USD/CHF Price Forecast: Sits near November 2025 top as bulls await move beyond 0.8100

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The USD/CHF pair trades with a positive bias for the fifth straight day on Tuesday, near its highest level since November 2025, with bulls awaiting sustained strength above the 0.8100 mark before positioning for further gains.

USD/CHF attracts buyers for the fifth straight day amid a broadly firmer US Dollar.
The Iran risk and the Fed’s hawkish tilt lift the USD to a fresh high since May 2025.
The bullish technical setup backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.

The US Dollar (USD) has climbed to a fresh high since May 2025 in the face of persistent geopolitical uncertainties and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt. A broadly firmer buck, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to act as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair and backs the case for an extension of the uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this month.

The recent breakout through the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivotal barrier, the 0.8000 psychological mark, and the previous year-to-date high, touched in January, were seen as key triggers for bulls. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holds above its signal with a positive histogram, reinforcing persistent bullish pressure.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just below the overbought threshold near 69, hinting at stretched but still constructive momentum. Nevertheless, the USD/CHF pair is likely to stay bid while holding above the 200-day EMA breakout point near 0.7966, which should now act as a key reference point for traders even if a short-term corrective pullback unfolds.

That said, A sustained daily close back below that moving average would ease the immediate bullish tone and open room for a deeper corrective pullback, especially if overbought RSI readings start to unwind and the MACD histogram begins to contract.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/CHF daily chart

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Composite PMI

The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.