AUD/USD Price Forecast: Flat lines around mid-0.7000s; seems vulnerable below 100-day SMA

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The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers after touching a nearly two-month low, around the 0.7025-0.7020 area during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks follow-through.

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on its modest bounce from a nearly two-month low set on Monday.
Geopolitical risks and Fed rate hike bets continue to underpin the USD, capping gains for spot prices.
The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for a further depreciating move.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers after touching a nearly two-month low, around the 0.7025-0.7020 area during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks follow-through. Spot prices currently trade near mid-0.7000s, nearly unchanged for the day, and remain vulnerable amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that it struck military targets in western and central Iran, hours after the latter fired a salvo of missiles at Israel’s Ramat David air base on Sunday night. The development threatens a fragile ceasefire and tempers hopes for a deal to end a three-month-old Iran war, pushing Crude Oil prices higher. This, in turn, revives inflationary concerns, which, along with Friday's upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, bolsters the case for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 and favors the USD bulls. Furthermore, diminishing odds of a near-term rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cap the upside for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices keep a bearish near-term bias following Friday's breakdown below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the currency pair is trading below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May rally, validating the near-term negative outlook. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 38, and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggests persistent downside pressure rather than a decisive reversal. Hence, any subsequent move up would face a hurdle at the 100-day SMA around 0.7074, with additional barriers at the 38.2% and the 23.6% levels at 0.7108 and 0.7173, respectively.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 0.7003, ahead of a deeper cushion at the 78.6% level near 0.6928 and the prior swing low region around 0.6833.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

US Dollar Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 30 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		1.72%	1.69%	2.18%	2.06%	2.34%	2.48%	2.21%
EUR	-1.72%		-0.05%	0.46%	0.36%	0.54%	0.74%	0.50%
GBP	-1.69%	0.05%		0.53%	0.39%	0.67%	0.83%	0.55%
JPY	-2.18%	-0.46%	-0.53%		-0.14%	-0.00%	0.24%	0.07%
CAD	-2.06%	-0.36%	-0.39%	0.14%		0.09%	0.38%	0.16%
AUD	-2.34%	-0.54%	-0.67%	0.00%	-0.09%		0.25%	-0.03%
NZD	-2.48%	-0.74%	-0.83%	-0.24%	-0.38%	-0.25%		-0.34%
CHF	-2.21%	-0.50%	-0.55%	-0.07%	-0.16%	0.03%	0.34%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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