Deutsche Bank’s macro strategy team notes that Brent Oil remains supported by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Comments from President Trump about the Strait of Hormuz have reinforced fears of a prolonged disruption, driving prices higher overnight. While Brent was little changed in the previous session, late gains contributed to a more hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve expectations.

Geopolitics and Fed repricing drive Oil

"As we go to press this morning, markets have lost momentum after President Trump said the US doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open “at all”. So that’s added to fears that the Strait will remain blocked for some time, leading to a more protracted energy shock for the global economy."

"Indeed, Brent crude oil prices are up another +1.21% overnight to $107.00/bbl."

"In the meantime, oil prices were little changed yesterday, with Brent crude (+0.09%) closing at $105.72/bbl."

"However, oil did edge higher late in the US session, which contributed to a more hawkish Fed repricing."

"For instance, futures almost fully priced in a rate hike by June 2027, with 24bps of tightening now priced (+5.6bps on the day)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)