Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao and Shuang Ding expect China to set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0% at the National People’s Congress, slightly below 2025. Fiscal policy should stay supportive but less aggressive, while monetary policy remains moderately accommodative with a focus on liquidity.

Policy support with structural priorities

"China is likely to set a GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% at the upcoming National People’s Congress (NPC), a modest step down from around 5% in 2025 and broadly aligned with the long‑term objective of reaching mid‑level developed‑economy income by 2035."

"Boosting consumption and fostering innovation are likely to remain the policy priorities, with reflation to be pursued mainly through anti‑involution measures, including strengthening labour protection, curbing disorderly competition, raising industrial standards and tightening oversight of government subsidies."

"Macro policy is set to remain supportive but not aggressive."

"Fiscal policy will likely continue to play the leading role, though with a slightly narrower official deficit than in 2025 as trade uncertainty eases and policy makers shift from ‘extraordinary’ to ‘necessary’ counter‑cyclical support."

"Monetary policy is likely to remain moderately accommodative, focused on ample liquidity rather than large rate cuts."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)