Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that weaker German IFO data, weighed down by Gulf tensions and energy price concerns, has softened the outlook for German growth but had little immediate impact on the Euro. EUR/USD has rebounded from a minor dip, with short-term technicals indicating losses are stabilizing around support and scope for a modest recovery toward recent resistance levels.

IFO weakness but EUR holds firm

"Germany’s IFO survey posted weaker than expected results for April as Gulf tensions and concerns over energy prices weighed on the Expectations component (83.3), which fell to the lowest since 2023. The weak Business Climate (84.4) and Expectations data soften the outlook for German growth prospects and suggest sluggish growth momentum at best."

"The data had little impact on the EUR, however, with spot rebounding from a minor dip to trade at session highs as North American trade gets underway."

"Neutral/bullish—Short-term price signals suggest EUR losses are steadying around the 1.1675 level (support). Intraday gains may extend above 1.1700—minor trend from last Friday’s high (and potential bull wedge ceiling)—to regain 1.1745/65."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)