• EUR/USD falls 0.21% as DXY gains amid Middle East tensions.
• US jobless claims steady at 213K while layoffs plunge 55% to 48.3K.
• Markets eye Friday’s NFP, expected at 59K with unemployment at 4.3%.

The EUR/USD edged lower on Thursday, down some 0.21% as market sentiment remains risk averse due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This and solid US economic data pushed the pair lower towards the 1.1600 figure ahead of Friday’s session

Risk aversion, solid labor data keep the Euro pressured ahead of US NFP

US equity markets finished Thursday’s session in negative territory. The US economic docket revealed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 28, came at 213K less than the expected 215K, an indication of strength in the labor market. At the same time, data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that announced layoffs dropped to 48,300 in February—a 55% decrease from January’s 108,435.

The Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin revealed concerns about sticky inflation, adding that recent jobs data reveals solidness in the labor market. Consequently, he said that the balance of risks could shift as the battle against inflation has not been won.

In Europe, the latest accounts from the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting indicated that policymakers opted to keep interest rates unchanged. During this meeting, ECB officials discussed the trajectory of inflation within the eurozone, noting that there was potential for inflation to decline further below the central bank’s 2% target.

Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that this meeting took place prior to the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran. The conflict has altered the global economic outlook, particularly for Europe, which relies heavily on energy imports.

Ahead on Friday, the Eurozone economic docket will feature the release of employment data, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the last quarter of 2025. Besides this, the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde will cross the wires.

In the US, the schedule will be busy with the release of Retail Sales for January and February’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which are expected to came at 59K, with the Unemployment Rate foreseen to remain steady at 4.3%.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1609. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the pair extends its retreat below the broken descending resistance line, with price now slipping under the cluster of simple moving averages around 1.17. The moving averages have flattened and started to edge above spot, indicating fading upside momentum and growing overhead supply. RSI at 33 shows bearish momentum building but not yet in oversold territory, which keeps room open for additional downside while rebounds remain capped by the former trend barrier.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 1.1700/1.1720 zone, where the broken trend line and the grouped moving averages converge, and recovery attempts would need a daily close above this area to ease downside pressure. If buyers regain that region, the next resistance stands near 1.1820, the mid-October congestion area. On the downside, initial support is located at the recent low of 1.1615, followed by the 1.1570/1.1550 band, where a deeper slide would expose a more extended correction phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)