Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep its policy rate unchanged, maintaining a wait‑and‑see stance unlike the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). He argues that contained core inflation and anchored expectations allow patience, while markets price only a small chance of a hike. The New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) outlook remains tied to Iran‑driven Oil dynamics.

Policy on hold as oil risk lingers

"When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets tomorrow morning for its monetary policy meeting, the key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged."

"Unlike in Australia, where the key interest rate has already been raised three times this year, the central bank in New Zealand is expected to maintain its wait-and-see stance tomorrow as well."

"The central bank can therefore afford to wait and see for now and keep an eye on potential second-round effects."

"The market currently prices in a 15% probability of an interest rate hike tomorrow."

"The only certainty is that the longer the conflict persists and the more the oil price rises, the more the kiwi will continue to be on the losing side."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)