MUFG's Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that stalled US–Iran talks and an extended United States (US) ceasefire have shifted the conflict into a prolonged standoff, with a continued blockade of Iranian ports. This implies ongoing disruption risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent for June delivery remains elevated near USD100, while broader macro markets, including US Dollar Index (DXY) and US yields, stay relatively contained.

Geopolitics keep Brent elevated

"A second round of US–Iran talks failed to materialize after Tehran rejected further peace discussions, following an initial high level engagement that did not yield any resolution to the conflict. President Trump has unilaterally extended his ceasefire timeline, keeping a temporary truce in place until talks with Iran are formally concluded."

"Meanwhile, the US continues to blockade Iranian ports to halt oil shipments. The conflict appears to have moved into a prolonged standoff rather than towards a swift or durable resolution, with US leveraging the port blockade to pressure Tehran into a peace deal, or risk further military escalation."

"For markets, this environment implies continued disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for June delivery remains elevated, hovering near the USD100/bbl level. However, broader macro markets remain relatively contained, with DXY steady around 98.4 and the US 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.3%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)