Rabobank strategist Michael Every describes how US efforts to secure Hormuz Oil flows under an emerging US-Iran MoU were reportedly blocked by Saudi Arabia, raising regional security risks. Every details US threats to relocate bases and Iran’s renewed rhetoric, while noting ongoing talks in Qatar and a fragile ‘peacefire’ that still underpins short-term Oil supply expectations.

Hormuz chokepoint and regional security

"Meanwhile, the brief US Operation Freedom to get Hormuz oil flowing before the US-Iran MoU was reportedly shot down by Saudi Arabia: Riyadh refused to allow the US to use its bases or airspace, to which the US threatened to not shoot down incoming drones or missiles – and is reportedly considering moving bases elsewhere in the region – like Israel(?) Which Iran is again threatening today in tit-for-tat rhetoric."

"We had more ‘positive’ talks in Qatar. Both sides reportedly still want the ‘peacefire’ to hold for now, as we expected, as the US tries to convince Iran to look at the ‘bigger picture’ and not insist on control of Hormuz or tolls."

"However, the US also said Iran will not get any frozen assets until it fulfils the MoU, which Iran puts the other way round, as Tehran claims it will use that cash in Qatar to buy “required goods” while the US says it will be held in escrow and used to buy US products."

"Meanwhile, VP Vance made clear the MoU is an opportunity to refuel, then see if more war is required (our base case), as Lebanon and Syria, a former Iranian proxy now flipped, joined a CENTCOM-led Middle East security dialogue for first time, and Iraq’s PM gave pro-Iranian militias a 30 September deadline to disarm."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)