Daily Financial Breakfast 12 November 2026: Nvidia CEO Removal Discussed, Rabobank Reports; Iran Says Hormuz Remains Shut

Market News Today: Policy Expectations Shift as Dollar Strengthens

• Allegations concerning personal conduct and chip supplies to China prompted discussions within Nvidia’s board about removing CEO Jensen Huang, according to Rabobank.
• Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would require an order from Iran’s leader, Iran said. Separately, Commerzbank relayed Iranian claims of mine strikes involving two more tankers.
• A year-to-date peak of 103.08 in the US Dollar Index accompanied market expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening, with gold changing hands below $4,000.
• A December deposit rate of 2.75%, following an ECB increase of 25 basis points, was forecast by every one of the 71 economists polled by Reuters.
• With USD/JPY close to 160, the speed of currency movements prompted a warning from Japan’s currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura. Weak consumption also underpinned BoJ board member Toichiro Asada’s caution over tightening.
• Commerzbank said pricing in India’s overnight index swaps implied nearly 90 basis points of tightening by February 2027.
• The possibility of persistently strong wage growth and businesses passing on the associated costs justified proactive monetary tightening, according to Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene.
• A record low of 18,272 per US dollar was recorded by Indonesia’s rupiah as doubts resurfaced about the country’s emerging-market status.

Markets Adjust to Shifting Conditions

U.S. Equity Futures Diverge as Nasdaq and S&P Retreat

A 0.43% fall left S&P 500 futures at around 7,610 in Thursday’s European session. Nasdaq 100 futures were also lower, shedding 0.92% to around 28,210, whereas Dow Jones futures were little changed at around 52,580.

U.S. Treasury Yield Reaches 5%

On Wednesday, 5% was reached by the US 10-year Treasury yield.

Nvidia Leadership Comes Under Board Review

Nvidia Board Considers Removing Jensen Huang, Says Rabobank

Personal-conduct allegations and claims that Nvidia had lobbied for and supplied chips to China despite export controls were cited in Rabobank’s Global Daily as the company’s board met to consider removing chief executive Jensen Huang.

The reported deliberations were connected by Rabobank to questions surrounding enforcement of US export controls and the worldwide semiconductor trade. No leadership change had been announced in the account, which covered board discussions; the allegations on which they rested remained claims.

Geopolitics & Energy Markets Remain in Focus

Hormuz Remains Shut Pending Iranian Leader’s Order Amid Reports of Tanker Mine Strikes

An order from the leader of the revolution was the sole condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said. Al Jazeera reported on Wednesday that Heidari said Tehran had closed the strait.

Claims by Iran’s IRGC Navy that mines had struck two further oil tankers attempting to navigate the strait were relayed by Commerzbank, with both ships reportedly ablaze. The bank also noted disruption to LNG flows. A gain of 1.2% took Brent crude to $92.63 per barrel, although its broader November decline stood at approximately 17%. For WTI, losses stretched to a fifth successive day, with the contract trading at around $85.00 per barrel earlier in Thursday’s Asian session.

Rabobank’s account pointed to unresolved divisions in US policy deliberations. President Donald Trump criticised the current memorandum of understanding and called for “total victory.” By contrast, Vice-President Vance was reportedly considering direct negotiations with Iranian hard-liner Mohsen Rezai. An indefinite extension of the economic blockade was reportedly favoured by White House Chief of Staff Miller.

Saudi oil production was again approaching prewar levels, according to Rabobank. In separate reporting, the bank said Treasury Secretary Bessent had relocated his family to a military base after threats associated with Iran. It also said Miller, Secretary of State Rubio and Attorney General Blanche were living at military bases.

Monetary Policy & Currencies React to Rate Expectations

US Dollar Index Climbs to 103.08 as Fed Tightening Expectations Build

Stronger-than-forecast US inflation figures, together with hawkish Federal Reserve remarks, preceded Thursday’s rise in the US Dollar Index to 103.08. That was its highest reading this year and since April 2025. After the peak, a separate update on Thursday showed a level of around 102.88.

Tuesday’s figures had left monthly US core CPI unchanged at 0.3%. Against that backdrop, MUFG’s Lee Hardman said futures implied around 28 basis points of rate rises by December, increasing to 43 basis points by the January meeting. The figures described expectations in market prices, rather than policy decisions already announced.

A price below $4,000 left gold close to its lowest in more than a week on Thursday as losses continued for a third day running. The metal had changed hands at $3,999 on Wednesday, down 0.70%, before reaching around $3,985 in early Asian trading on Thursday. Most of the preceding week’s advance was thereby reversed.

Gains for the dollar were also evident against other leading currencies. A rise of nearly 1% brought USD/CHF to around 0.8335 on Wednesday, the highest in four weeks; GBP/USD, by comparison, lost 0.55% and moved below 1.3300. With EUR/USD falling for a second day running, the pair reached a two-week low. AUD/USD remained close to levels last observed in March.

ECB Expected to Lift December Deposit Rate to 2.75% in Unanimous Reuters Poll

A 25 basis point December increase in the European Central Bank’s deposit rate to 2.75% was anticipated by all 71 economists in Thursday’s Reuters poll. Their agreement related to the decision scheduled for next month, not to a policy adjustment that the ECB had announced.

Yen Nears 160 as Japan Challenges Pace of Currency Movements

Having reached a more-than-two-month high of 159.94, USD/JPY was trading at around 159.70, a decline of 0.10% on the day. Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Thursday that the recent pace of currency movements had been excessive, adding that “it’s still too early to forget what happened this summer.”

The yen’s decline over the previous two days totalled nearly 1.25%, while Societe Generale put the overnight range at 159.48–159.95. A record ¥15.4 trillion had been spent by Japan on buying yen during three days between 30 July and 3 August. Those purchases followed a fall in the currency to nearly 164 per dollar, its weakest in about 40 years.

In separate remarks, Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada pointed to sluggish consumption as a reason for the central bank to consider carefully the risk of rate rises pushing underlying inflation lower.

India Swaps Signal Nearly 90 Basis Points of Tightening by February 2027

Nearly 90 basis points of cumulative tightening by February 2027 were implied by India’s overnight index swap pricing, Commerzbank said. The bank’s forecast put October consumer-price inflation above 6% year-on-year, versus September’s 5.5%. Elevated oil prices, firm domestic demand and an adverse base effect were the reasons it cited.

The Reserve Bank of India’s October review envisaged inflation at 6% in the fourth quarter of 2026, then 5.7% in the first quarter of 2027 and 5.6% in the second quarter. These figures set out the bank’s projections; they were not inflation readings published afterwards.

BoE’s Greene Supports Proactive Tightening to Address Persistent Wage Risks

The risk of wage growth becoming entrenched at higher levels, and of businesses passing on those costs, was highlighted on Wednesday by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene. She said it was appropriate to “proactively tighten our monetary policy stance.”

Indonesian Rupiah Sinks to 18,272 per Dollar as Emerging-Market Concerns Return

At 18,272 per US dollar on Thursday, the Indonesian rupiah reached its weakest level on record. USD/IDR later stood at around 18,260 in Asian trading. Behind the fall were renewed doubts over Indonesia’s emerging-market status, MSCI index issues and political uncertainty.