Asian stocks finish mixed as Nvidia leadership turmoil and Anthropic IPO speculation set the backdrop

  • Gains in Japan’s Nikkei 225 and China’s Shanghai Composite contrast with declines in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s KOSPI.
  • Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, the resignation of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang raises concerns that the US could tighten chip export restrictions.
  • With Anthropic’s forthcoming IPO already six times oversubscribed, robust investor appetite lifts Japanese technology shares.

A 0.91% advance took Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index to around 61,370 on Friday, while China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.22% to reach 3,660. The gains came amid a mixed session for Asian equities: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.82% to 23,810, and South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 0.49% to near 5,320.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Worries about the upheaval in Nvidia’s leadership and its possible implications for China’s technology sector pushed Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lower, outweighing a wider rebound in regional semiconductor stocks. Following reports of extramarital affairs, the scandal led to the departure of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, with CFO Colette Kress taking over as interim CEO. The developments have rekindled concerns about tighter US export curbs and disruptions to supplies of advanced chips for Chinese AI developers.

Caution ahead of next week’s Shenzhen summit between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping left mainland Chinese equities divided. The Shanghai Composite advanced, but the Shenzhen Component eased. Fresh uncertainty surrounds the high-stakes talks after allegations about Huang’s links to a suspected Chinese spy threatened to revive bilateral tensions over semiconductor trade. Those allegations could provide US lawmakers with further grounds to press for tougher technology controls.

Although the technology-heavy Kosdaq advanced, South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI surrendered its early gains. Trading in leading AI beneficiaries was subdued: SK Hynix was unchanged, while Samsung Electronics edged up. Reports indicated that Samsung Electronics is discussing the acquisition of US-listed data centre cooling provider Modine Manufacturing as it seeks to broaden its AI infrastructure presence.

In Japan, reassessment of the wider implications of Nvidia’s leadership changes for artificial intelligence helped drive a rally in the Nikkei 225 Index. Kioxia Holdings, Advantest and Tokyo Electron were among the technology and AI-linked shares leading the recovery. Support came from keen market anticipation of Anthropic’s IPO next week, with orders already amounting to roughly six times the shares available.

Rising geoeconomic tensions heighten China chip trade risks

The repercussions of the Nvidia saga may reach beyond stock market volatility and into the wider geoeconomic landscape, Rabobank warns. Its analysts caution that “even worse, if the US decision to look the other way on chip sales was a geoeconomic bribe to ensure Chinese rare earths and help in geopolitics, then things could get far more turbulent,” highlighting the danger that a review of export-control enforcement could destabilise already vulnerable supply chains and dependencies on strategic resources.

AI shares: frequently asked questions

At its core, artificial intelligence is an academic field concerned with reproducing human cognition, logical understanding, perception and pattern recognition in machines. Commonly shortened to AI, it encompasses several specialist areas: artificial neural networks, machine learning or predictive analytics, symbolic reasoning, deep learning, natural language processing, speech recognition, image recognition and expert systems. Ultimately, the field aims to develop artificial general intelligence, or AGI: a machine capable of solving arbitrary problems without having been trained to address them.

Artificial intelligence has a wide range of applications. Among the best known are generative AI platforms, including ChatGPT and Google’s Bard platform, which draw on training with large language models (LLMs) to respond to text-based questions. For images, Midjourney produces original work from text supplied by users. Probabilistic methods underpin other AI applications that assess an entity’s attributes or how it is perceived. Upstart’s lending platform, for example, employs an AI-enhanced credit rating system to assess applicants’ creditworthiness, searching the internet for information about their careers, wealth profiles and relationships. Elsewhere, AI draws on extensive databases of scientific research to propose potential new pharmaceuticals for laboratory testing. By gathering and organising information about viewing habits, YouTube, Spotify, Facebook and other content aggregators also use AI applications to recommend personalised content.

Semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia (NVDA) produces AI-focused computer chips as well as some of the platforms engineers rely on to develop AI applications. Because it supplies the tools required for further uses of artificial intelligence, many supporters regard Nvidia as a picks-and-shovels investment in the AI revolution. Another company in the field is Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a “big data” analytics business with substantial US intelligence community contracts. Intelligence agencies use its Gotham platform to analyse data, identify intelligence leads and support pattern recognition. Large corporations, meanwhile, use its Foundry product to monitor employee and customer data for predictive analytics and anomaly detection. Microsoft (MSFT) holds a sizeable stake in OpenAI, the privately held creator of ChatGPT, and has incorporated OpenAI’s technology into its Bing search engine.

The public launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 prompted a rally across many AI-linked shares. Over the six months after its release, Nvidia, for example, gained well over 200%, quickly leading Wall Street commentators to question whether another technology bubble was taking hold. Renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has held substantial positions in both Palantir and Nvidia, argued that bubbles never endure for only six months. In his view, if enthusiasm for AI did turn into a bubble, extreme valuations would persist for at least two and a half years or longer, as they did during the DotCom bubble of the late 1990s. As of mid-2023, the best assessment was that the market was not in a bubble, at least for the time being. Although Nvidia then traded at 27 times forward sales, analysts anticipated exceptionally strong revenue growth for years ahead. The NASDAQ 100, by comparison, was valued at 25 times earnings in mid-2023, against 60 times earnings at the peak of the DotCom bubble.