Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC faces pressure as MSCI drops Strategy from global indices, leaving billions in fund flows at risk

• With losses exceeding 1.5% so far this week, Bitcoin continues to face pressure below $73,800 on Thursday.
• Strategy will be removed from MSCI’s global indices, the index provider announced on Wednesday.
• A fifth consecutive day of withdrawals saw US-listed BTC spot ETFs register outflows of $299.90 million on Wednesday.

Losses of more than 1.5% so far this week have left Bitcoin (BTC) trading below $73,800 on Thursday, with the cryptocurrency still under pressure. Wednesday’s announcement by global index provider MSCI that it will remove Strategy (MSTR) and other BTC-holding companies from its global indices deepened bearish sentiment, putting billions in fund flows at risk. Institutional appetite has also deteriorated this week. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted almost $300 million in outflows on Wednesday, their fifth consecutive day of withdrawals, restraining the leading cryptocurrency’s recovery.

Strategy’s removal puts billions in fund flows at risk

With holdings of 850,364 BTC, Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. On Wednesday, global index provider MSCI said it would remove the company from its global indices.

To align their portfolios with the changes, index funds following the affected benchmarks may have to sell their Strategy shares by 30 November. MSCI’s decision applies directly to the company’s shares, not its Bitcoin holdings. Nevertheless, the repercussions could reach the cryptocurrency market because Strategy holds the largest Bitcoin treasury.

The exclusion list also names Tokyo-listed Metaplanet, another company that accumulates and holds Bitcoin, alongside UK-based uranium investment company Yellow Cake. Removal of the companies from the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices takes effect on 1 December.

Potential forced selling could depress the shares of these BTC-holding companies and indirectly weaken sentiment towards Bitcoin. Such companies offer institutions a route to BTC exposure. Prolonged pressure on their shares could therefore erode confidence in corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, creating a further obstacle to BTC’s recovery.

Bitcoin faces weakening institutional demand

Net outflows of $299.90 million from BTC spot ETFs on Wednesday extended a run of withdrawals that began last week to five consecutive days, according to SoSoValue. The figures underline the continued weakening of institutional demand for Bitcoin this week. Should withdrawals persist and accelerate through the rest of the week, the additional pressure could drive BTC into a deeper price correction.

Bitcoin’s next move hinges on the Nasdaq sustaining its recovery

A 3.55% rally in the Nasdaq on Monday was accompanied by a gain of just 0.69% in BTC, illustrating Bitcoin’s continued underperformance against the index this week. That marked divergence between the two risk-sensitive assets continued on Wednesday: the technology-heavy index advanced nearly 2%, whereas Bitcoin rose only 0.30%.

A K33 report found that, in all five observed instances, Bitcoin’s performance over the following 20 days moved in the same direction as the Nasdaq. In a broader sample of 16 strong Nasdaq rebounds after market corrections, Bitcoin gained in eight of the nine cases in which the Nasdaq kept rising (Figure 15), delivering a median return of 2.9%. By contrast, BTC fell in all seven cases in which the Nasdaq’s recovery faltered (Figure 16), with a median loss of 21%. Whether the Nasdaq can maintain its recovery therefore appears central to Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.

Almost all of last week’s losses in the technology-heavy index have been recouped so far this week; Bitcoin, by comparison, has fallen 1.5% over the same period. Despite a recovery in equity-market risk appetite, the cryptocurrency remains relatively weak. Historical observations suggest that a failed Nasdaq recovery could leave BTC facing substantially larger losses than the technology index. 

A continuing equity rebound, on the other hand, could lend Bitcoin support. Even so, its recent lag suggests that improving risk appetite may not immediately produce a stronger recovery in BTC.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Sellers retain control

At $73,727 on Thursday, Bitcoin remains beneath key exponential moving averages (EMAs), leaving its near-term bias bearish. Overhead sit the 200-day EMA at $76,384, the 100-day EMA at $77,411 and the 50-day EMA at $78,701. These levels suggest the latest rebound is still constrained within a broader corrective phase. 

The momentum indicators support that assessment. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 34 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remaining negative, sellers appear to retain control despite occasional rebounds.

The first upside barrier is the 200-day EMA around $76,384. Beyond it lie the 100-day EMA near $77,411 and the 50-day EMA at about $78,701. Together, these averages present a substantial resistance zone that buyers would need to regain to relieve downward pressure. Further up, horizontal resistance at $85,000 represents a more significant obstacle, where earlier selling interest could re-emerge. 

With no nearby support mapped out, a break beneath current levels would point BTC towards the psychological support area around $70,000 before the price stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)