Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Sellers push BTC below $68,000 despite oversold signal

• A decline of more than 7% so far this week takes Bitcoin to an intraday low of $67,568 on Friday.
• A fall of more than 10% in Nvidia shares this week accompanies a broader retreat from risk as CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation unsettles sentiment.
• BTC remains exposed to further losses as liquidations mount, ETF withdrawals persist and appetite for risk fades.

A fall of more than 8% takes Bitcoin (BTC) to an intraday low of $67,568 on Friday, extending its correction. Although technical indicators point to oversold conditions, selling continues to gather pace. Persistent outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), leveraged liquidations and declining risk appetite are clouding the outlook for the leading cryptocurrency. Nvidia’s (NVDA) steep fall and this week’s news of CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation have reinforced the bearish backdrop, encouraging a broader retreat from risk.

Nvidia’s sell-off deepens the retreat from risk

Controversy surrounding CEO Jensen Huang’s personal relationships, which prompted his resignation on Thursday, has been followed by a fall of more than 13% in Nvidia shares so far this week. As the sell-off stripped Nvidia of its status as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, sentiment shifted away from risk, putting pressure on assets such as cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s correction exceeded 8%, taking it to a low of  $67,568 on Friday, a level last seen in mid-August.

A wave of crypto liquidations followed this week’s price moves. As the Coinglass chart below illustrates, more than $1.2 billion in BTC positions were liquidated. Most were long positions, underscoring the bullish positioning of leveraged Bitcoin traders.

Speaking exclusively to FXStreet, Bitunix Analyst Dean Chen said Bitcoin’s selling pressure had been compounded by Nvidia’s recent losses and the news involving CEO Jensen Huang, but neither was the main cause of the cryptocurrency’s decline. In his view, Bitcoin had begun to weaken before Nvidia’s latest correction, pointing to a greater role for crypto-specific factors.

“I think blaming Bitcoin’s decline on Nvidia is a little too convenient. The timeline doesn’t really support that explanation,” Chen said. He noted that Bitcoin had peaked at around $87,300 on 21 September, whereas Nvidia only reached its high on 6 October. 

Rather than setting off the initial decline, the correction in AI shares and the news concerning Jensen Huang had heightened anxiety in an already fragile market, he added.

Chen concluded: “I’m not saying Bitcoin can’t bounce from here. It certainly can, especially if forced selling eases and short positions begin to close. But I wouldn’t confuse a relief rally with a real recovery,”

Institutional outflows persist 

With net withdrawals reaching $595.98 million through Wednesday, BTC spot ETFs are heading for a third consecutive week of outflows, according to SoSoValue data. Last week’s net outflows totalled $1.28 billion, and institutional demand for Bitcoin has weakened further so far this week.

Should withdrawals persist through Friday and gather pace, BTC could face additional selling pressure and a deeper price correction.

Corporate support, which has historically cushioned Bitcoin through sharp corrections, suffered another setback this week. Global index provider MSCI confirmed on Wednesday that Strategy would be dropped from its global indices, the MSCI USA Index and the MSCI World Index. 

Also placed on the exclusion list was Tokyo-listed Metaplanet, another company that accumulates and holds BTC. Effective 1 December, the companies will be removed from the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.

To align their portfolios with those changes, index funds following the affected benchmarks may have to sell their shares in Strategy and Metaplanet by 30 November and 1 December. 

The direct impact of MSCI’s decision falls on the two companies’ shares, not their Bitcoin holdings. Even so, there could be repercussions for the cryptocurrency because of the firms’ substantial Bitcoin treasury positions. Strategy is currently the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with 850,364 BTC, while Metaplanet Inc. ranks second with 44,000 BTC.

Macroeconomic pressures bear down on BTC

US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 0.4% in October, exceeding the market forecast of 0.3%, according to figures released on Tuesday. The core measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3%. That matched September’s rise and was above the estimated 0.2%. 

Annual inflation figures were absent from this release. The report lacks monthly data for October 2025 because of the government shutdown that ran from 1 October 2025 to 12 November 2025.

Risk appetite has weakened following the above-forecast US CPI readings, as expectations of tighter monetary conditions have strengthened. In particular, the report increased the likelihood of a Fed interest rate rise in December.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller also warned that the stronger-than-expected core CPI reading of 0.3% could lead him to consider a larger rate rise of 50 basis points (bps) at the 8–9 December policy meeting. Restricting the increase to 25 bps could jeopardise the Fed’s credibility, he added.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields rose in response to this hawkish stance, with the 10-year yield climbing above 5%. As the chart below shows, that put downward pressure on BTC.

Friday’s economic calendar is led by the US Producer Price Index (PPI). Alongside that release, speeches by influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will help shape expectations for the Fed’s policy trajectory and Bitcoin’s next move.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Correction points to a sixth week of losses

Five consecutive weekly declines have left the leading cryptocurrency down more than 13% since its correction began in early October. Last week’s close was below the important 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $75,101. Losses have extended by close to 7% this week, with BTC trading near the 200-week SMA at $67,999 on Friday.

A weekly close beneath the 200-week SMA of $67,999, should the correction persist, could point to a deeper decline towards the key psychological level of $60,000.

At 41, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the neutral threshold of 50, indicating that bullish momentum is fading. A red bar on this week’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram adds weight to the bearish view.

A recovery in BTC, by contrast, could carry the price towards the 50-week SMA of $75,101. Closing above that level and holding it could open the way for a further recovery towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $78,661, measured from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199.

Price remains firmly beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart, extending Bitcoin’s bearish phase. All three averages sit above the market, signalling continued downward pressure. 

A fall to around 25 has taken the daily RSI into oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still deeply negative, accompanied by a broadly negative histogram. This indicates that bearish momentum continues to dominate despite increasingly stretched conditions.

The first resistance on any advance lies at the 200-day EMA near $76,286. Beyond it are the 100-day EMA around $77,194 and the 50-day EMA close to $78,223. Together, they create a concentrated moving-average barrier before the more distant horizontal ceiling at $85,000.

With no nearby support mapped below the market, a break beneath current levels would point BTC towards the psychological support area around $60,000 before it stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)