ECB set to raise rates to 2.75% in December, economists unanimously predict in Reuters poll

A 25 basis point increase in the European Central Bank (ECB) deposit rate to 2.75% in December is expected in a Reuters poll released on Thursday. A rate rise next month is forecast by all 71 economists surveyed. While 46 put the peak in the deposit rate at 2.75%, the remaining 25 anticipate a further increase, most likely in the first quarter of 2027.

Compared with a month earlier, economists have revised their inflation projections upwards. They now anticipate Eurozone inflation staying at roughly twice the ECB’s 2% target until at least the second quarter of 2027.

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Average inflation is forecast at 3.1% for 2026 and 2.8% for 2027, compared with 3.0% and 2.6% in the October survey. Economists also anticipate an acceleration in core inflation, with averages of 2.6% this quarter and 2.8% in the first quarter of 2027.

Growth forecasts have been revised upwards as well: economists now project Eurozone economic expansion of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. The corresponding forecasts in the October poll were 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively.

ECB Questions Answered

Based in Frankfurt, Germany, the European Central Bank (ECB) serves as the Eurozone’s reserve bank, setting interest rates and conducting monetary policy across the region. Maintaining price stability is the ECB’s main mandate, which entails keeping inflation at around 2%. Adjustments to interest rates are its principal means of pursuing that goal. Higher relative interest rates generally strengthen the euro, while lower relative rates tend to have the opposite effect. Monetary policy is determined by the ECB Governing Council at eight meetings each year. The decision-makers comprise the heads of the Eurozone’s national central banks and six permanent members, among them ECB President Christine Lagarde.

When circumstances are extreme, the European Central Bank can deploy Quantitative Easing (QE). Under this policy, the ECB prints euros to purchase assets, typically government or corporate bonds, from banks and other financial institutions. The euro usually weakens as a result. Used as a last resort, QE is an option when interest rate cuts alone are unlikely to deliver price stability. The ECB deployed it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, again in 2015 as inflation persisted at low levels, and during the Covid pandemic.

Once an economic recovery is under way and inflation begins to rise following QE, the opposite policy, quantitative tightening (QT), is undertaken. Under QE, the European Central Bank (ECB) supplies financial institutions with liquidity by buying government and corporate bonds from them. Under QT, by contrast, it ceases further bond purchases and no longer reinvests the principal repaid as its existing bond holdings mature. This is generally supportive of, or bullish for, the euro.