Forex Today: UK hard data and Fedspeak take centre stage

Persistent expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate rise at its December meeting have driven the US Dollar (USD) higher, taking it to levels not seen since April 2025.

A pronounced recovery in US Treasury yields across the curve has provided broad support for the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has reached fresh highs just pips short of the key 103.00 resistance level. The forthcoming US releases include the regular weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales and the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report. Speaking engagements are also expected from the Fed’s Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee and Daly.

The sharp US Dollar rebound has sent EUR/USD through 1.1100 to its lowest levels since May 2025. With no domestic data releases scheduled, attention will turn to speeches from the ECB’s Vujčić and Lagarde.

Sterling has also come under pressure from the stronger Greenback, with GBP/USD retreating to the 1.3270-1.3260 range at four-week lows. The forthcoming UK calendar features the RICS House Price Balance, preliminary Q3 GDP Growth Rate, provisional quarterly Business Investment figures, Balance of Trade results, Construction Orders/Output, Industrial/Manufacturing Production and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.

Fresh two-month highs have brought USD/JPY nearer to the key 160.00 resistance level as the pair extends its advance. Japan’s weekly Foreign Bond Investment data will be followed by Producer Prices and a speech from the BoJ’s Asada.

Increasing selling pressure across risk-sensitive assets has pulled AUD/USD towards 0.6840, a level last seen in January. Australia’s upcoming calendar includes the Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Inflation Expectations measure and a speech from the RBA’s Baker.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East have helped front-month WTI futures (December contract) recover ground. After three consecutive daily declines, prices have moved back above $87.00 per barrel.

Further Greenback gains and a pronounced rise in US Treasury yields across the curve have maintained downward pressure on gold. Extending Tuesday’s retreat, the precious metal has slipped below the key $4,000 level per troy ounce.