Forex Today: US inflation makes a comeback

Speculation that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy further, with investors even considering a half-point interest rate rise, kept the US Dollar (USD) on an upward path for another day. The currency returned to levels last seen in April 2025.

Beyond the 103.00 barrier, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached fresh 18-month highs as broad weakness across risk assets and growing expectations of another Fed rate increase at the December meeting lend support. Producer price data will round off the economic calendar, alongside speeches from the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, and Daly.

Continued US Dollar strength has pushed EUR/USD to fresh lows near 1.1050, extending the pair’s decline. The EMU’s trade balance figures are due next, followed by the preliminary Q3 Employment Change release and the second estimate of the bloc’s Q3 GDP Growth Rate. The ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel are also scheduled to speak.

Trading near the 1.3200 support zone, GBP/USD has retreated to multi-week lows. In the UK, attention now turns to the key labour market report, scheduled for 17 November.

Strength in the US Dollar has brought USD/JPY to within a few pips of the key 160.00 barrier. Japan’s next significant release is the preliminary Q3 GDP Growth Rate on 16 November, alongside final Industrial Production figures and Capacity Utilisation data. 

A third consecutive day of losses briefly took AUD/USD below support at 0.6800 for the first time since January, as the Greenback gained further ground. Minutes from the RBA are scheduled for publication on 17 November.

With developments, or the lack of them, in the Middle East conflict remaining firmly in focus, front-month WTI futures (December contract) have lacked clear direction, trading between $85.00 and $87.00 per barrel.

Further US Dollar gains and higher US Treasury yields, particularly at the short end and in the belly of the curve, kept Gold under sustained selling pressure on Thursday. The metal fell towards $3,850 per troy ounce.