Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE tests three-year low amid intensifying selling pressure

• Levels last recorded in October 2023 are back in view as Dogecoin extends its decline.
• Despite a sustained fall in futures Open Interest, traders are increasingly positioning to retain their long exposure.
• Oversold readings leave Dogecoin sellers with the near-term advantage, although a return of bullish momentum could shift the balance.

At around $0.0650 on Thursday, Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading lower as sellers strengthen their hold. Further losses remain the path of least resistance for the largest meme coin by market capitalisation, as well as for leading cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP).

A daily fall of about 2.6% has brought DOGE back to levels last recorded in October 2023. Behind the bearish outlook is a sustained deterioration in technical conditions, with subdued momentum indicators and falling moving averages.

Across the wider market, the $6.3 billion Binance hack has weighed on prices as interest in crypto-related investment products has suffered a sharp setback recently. Thursday's crypto Fear and Greed Index reading of 28 remained in Fear territory, only marginally below the previous day's 29, dampening appetite for risk.

Dogecoin derivatives weaken as weighted funding rate stays positive

Average perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) fell to $888 million on Thursday from $923 million the previous day, highlighting a marked deterioration in Dogecoin's derivatives market.

Measured by the notional value of unsettled futures contracts, OI had reached $1 billion on 1 November and $1.5 billion on 1 October. Its decline alongside Dogecoin's price suggests a sustained loss of investor interest.

In contrast, a positive OI-weighted funding rate of 0.0016% indicates that Dogecoin traders holding long positions remain prepared to pay a premium to maintain them. Should DOGE stay above short-term support at $0.0640, traders may therefore add to their exposure, improving the prospects for a recovery.

Technical analysis: Dogecoin extends decline towards multi-year lows

At $0.0648, Dogecoin remains well beneath all its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) as its decline continues, strengthening the near-term bearish outlook. Successive layers of trend resistance sit at the 50-day EMA of $0.0784, the 100-day EMA of $0.0812 and the 200-day EMA of $0.0885. Meanwhile, the SuperTrend level of $0.0769 constrains attempts to recover.

An oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 27 underscores the weak momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also below zero and showing a bearish crossover, pointing to continued selling pressure, although brief corrective rebounds remain possible for the pair.

Any rebound would first encounter the SuperTrend resistance around $0.0769, before reaching the 50-day EMA at $0.0784 and the 100-day EMA at $0.0812, where further gains would likely prove difficult. Beyond those levels, the 200-day EMA near $0.0885 presents a more substantial obstacle. A move back above it would be needed to ease the broader bearish structure.

Immediate structural support sits around the current price of $0.0648, with a decisive break below this zone opening the way to further losses. While the price remains beneath the cluster of EMA and SuperTrend resistance levels, the oversold RSI and negative MACD suggest that any relief rally from this area could be limited.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)