USD/CHF Price Forecast: Strong bullish momentum lifts pair to highs near 0.8300

• A gain of more than 1% in less than two days has taken USD/CHF to a fresh two-week high of 0.8286 so far.
• Growing investor bets on additional Fed tightening in December are lifting the USD against its peers.
• Resistance between 0.8300 and 0.8315 is likely to challenge US Dollar bulls.

US inflation data have helped drive USD/CHF more than 1% higher to a two-week high of 0.8286 so far. The US Dollar (USD) is rallying on Wednesday as bets increase on a December interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Meanwhile, stronger risk appetite and an unfavourable divergence in monetary policy are weighing heavily on the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening in December, leaving the Greenback ahead of its peers on Tuesday.

Comments from Fed officials earlier on Wednesday lent support to those expectations. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson advocated a “further gradual tightening” to return inflation to target. Later, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that “it is clear that the Fed needs at least two more quarter-percentage-point  increases.”

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, futures markets have all but priced in a December rate rise, including a 12% probability of a 50 basis points increase. By contrast, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is not expected to lift its benchmark interest rate from the current 0% any time soon. With markets favouring risk, that divergence places the Swiss Franc under considerable pressure.

Technical Analysis: USD/CHF Faces Potential Resistance Near 0.8300

Following a rise of nearly 2% from last week’s lows, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8283 with its positive near-term bias intact. On the four-hour charts, bullish momentum remains strong: the Relative Strength Index (14) is approaching overbought territory, while green bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram are expanding.

A substantial resistance zone is nevertheless likely to challenge buyers. Its lower boundary lies at 0.8295, where the 29 October low coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October-November correction, while the 28 October high at 0.8313 marks the upper boundary. Beyond that zone, attention would turn to the 15 October high around 0.8350, followed by the long-term high of 0.8395 reached in mid-October.

Any bearish move is likely to encounter an initial hurdle at the session low of 0.8248. Further down lie the top of last week’s range around 0.8225 and the lows recorded on Monday and Tuesday at 0.8174.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Find out more.)