美元/日元：风险仍然偏向下行 – 华侨银行

美元/日元：风险仍然偏向下行 – 华侨银行

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美元/日元在隔夜反弹，跟随美国PPI数据强劲后美国国债收益率的上升。该货币对最新报146.87，华侨银行外汇分析师Frances Cheung和Christopher Wong指出。

美元/日元在隔夜反弹，跟随美国PPI数据强劲后美国国债收益率的上升。该货币对最新报146.87，华侨银行外汇分析师Frances Cheung和Christopher Wong指出。

日本的经济活动可能支持日本央行的政策正常化

“随后澄清Scott Bessent并未要求日本加息，这也助推了美元/日元的反弹。该货币对在隔夜一度升至接近148，但现在已回落。强于预期的第二季度GDP推动了今晨美元/日元的回调。这进一步强化了我们认为日本央行有空间追求政策正常化的观点。”

“我们之前指出，工资增长、服务业通胀的扩大以及日本经济活动的乐观应继续支持日本央行的政策正常化。我们重申我们的观点，即美联储与日本央行政策的分歧恢复应支撑美元/日元的下行趋势。”

“日线动量略显看跌，而相对强弱指数（RSI）下跌。风险仍然偏向下行。146.40（50日均线）、145.50（100日均线）和144.10（4月低点到8月高点的61.8%斐波那契回撤位）为近期支撑位。147.80（21日均线）、148.32（23.6%斐波那契）为阻力位。”

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