美元指数:今日JOLTS职位空缺数据 – 华侨银行
美元(USD)隔夜上涨,但区间仍然局限于近期水平。华侨银行外汇分析师Frances Cheung和Christopher Wong指出,DXY最新报98.28。

美元(USD)隔夜上涨,但区间仍然局限于近期水平。华侨银行外汇分析师Frances Cheung和Christopher Wong指出,DXY最新报98.28。

日内动能转为温和看涨

"市场仍在等待周五的非农就业数据(NFP)和下周三的BLS初步基准修订结果。后者将通过将每月的工资数据与2025年第一季度的就业和工资季度普查(QCEW)进行对账,显示截至2025年3月的12个月的工资修订。该QCEW数据基于几乎所有雇主都需要提交的州失业保险税记录。"

"官方基准修订将在2026年2月的数据中提供,但此时的初步报告将指示劳动力市场的强劲或疲软程度。回顾一下,2024年3月的工资基准被下调了598K,而2023年则下调了187K。数据疲软可能会改变叙述并对美元施加压力。特别是,我们将关注关于在9月FOMC上进行50个基点大幅降息的讨论是否会有所增加。"

"日内动能转为温和看涨,同时相对强弱指数(RSI)的上升有所减缓。存在双向风险。阻力位在98.70(100日移动平均线)和99.60(2025年高点到低点的23.6%斐波那契回撤位)。支撑位在98.00/20(21日、50日移动平均线)、97.50和97.10。 本周数据重点关注JOLTS职位空缺报告、美联储的褐皮书(今天);ADP就业、ISM服务业、初请失业金人数(周四)以及更重要的非农就业报告(周五)。在美联储讲话方面,Musalem、Williams和Goolsbee本周将发言,之后美联储讲话将在9月6日进入沟通噤声期。"

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