欧元:法国政治将拖累 - 荷兰国际集团
正如预期的那样,法国总理弗朗索瓦·巴伊鲁昨日在议会失去了信任投票,并已提交辞呈,荷兰国际集团(ING)外汇分析师克里斯·特纳指出。

正如预期的那样,法国总理弗朗索瓦·巴伊鲁昨日在议会失去了信任投票,并已提交辞呈,荷兰国际集团(ING)外汇分析师克里斯·特纳指出。

欧元/美元可能暂时在1.1790/1800区域停滞

“现在的问题是,意见不合的政党是否决定在达成‘谁’领导政府之前,先就‘什么’(如何达成预算协议)达成一致。这对欧元来说无疑不是好消息,投资者猜测马克龙总统是否会被迫提前举行选举,法国政府债券的表现无疑会出现阶段性低迷。”

“然而,欧元/美元表现良好。短期美国利率的下降使得以欧元区为基础的投资者在美国资产上的美元对冲成本降至每年2.12%——这是自四月初以来的最低水平。这应该特别鼓励固定收益投资者提高他们的美元对冲比例,并对现货美元汇率施加压力。只是我们上述的美国货币市场故事使我们不愿意推动欧元/美元突破1.1830的高点。”

“今天欧元区的日历比较安静,但我们会听到几位欧洲央行发言者的声音:约阿希姆·纳格尔和弗朗索瓦·维勒罗伊·德·加尔豪,他们都在国际清算银行创新峰会上。考虑到周四的欧洲央行利率会议,关于欧洲央行政策的评论看起来不太可能。欧元/美元可能暂时在1.1790/1800区域停滞。但1.20无疑是多个月的目标。”

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