澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)在放松政策方面的步伐将比美联储更为谨慎 - BBH
澳元/美元回落至0.6580-0.6630区间的下端,该区间自9月30日以来一直存在,BBH外汇分析师报告。

澳元/美元回落至自9月30日以来一直维持的0.6580-0.6630区间的下端,BBH外汇分析师报告称。

澳元/美元短期内有望小幅走高

"澳大利亚西太平洋银行-墨尔本研究所消费者信心指数在10月份环比下降-3.5%,降至92.1,创六个月新低,主要受到对短期前景的悲观看法的影响,尤其是家庭财务的前景。令人鼓舞的是,消费者仍然对就业前景不感到担忧,因为失业预期指数在10月份下降-2.9%,降至127.6,创两个月新低。"

在9月30日的最后一次会议上,澳储行将政策利率维持在3.60%,并表示进一步降息的门槛较高。下次澳储行会议定于11月4日,现金利率期货显示降息25个基点的概率为40%。在接下来的12个月中,现金利率期货继续完全定价一次25个基点的降息,政策利率预计将在3.35%左右触底。"

"底线:由于澳储行的降息步伐预计将比美联储更为谨慎,且全球经济活动保持韧性,澳元/美元有望小幅走高。"

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