Gold’s under-owned phase appears over. 13F filings show a sharp rise in institutional ETF ownership, options premia have shifted toward the ETF, and recent inflows are driven by retail-linked investors and hedge funds. With positioning now crowded, the debasement trade may be nearing an inflection point, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Gold positioning nears inflection point

"Is Gold still under-owned? In April, we argued Gold was overbought but under-owned. In the absence of COT data supplementing our proprietary suite of positioning analytics, our analysis of 13F filings suggest that is no longer the case."

"The number of institutions holding the largest Gold ETF grew immensely over the last quarters: it is now 65% as popular as the most popular ETF in history, based on the absolute number of institutions holding it. Its share of institutional ownership rivals that of one of the top ETFs by popularity. Options on the ETF trade at a premium to their Comex equivalents, reversing a post-Covid trend."

"The institution types that have most contributed to inflows over the last quarters are (a) associated with underlying retail demand and (b) hedge funds. Listen, the debasement trade has been a great trade in 2025. But, funds are now back in charge in Gold markets, and the narrative may be reaching an inflection point over the coming months."