黄金不再被低配—道明证券
黄金的低配阶段似乎已经结束。13F 文件显示机构 ETF 持有量大幅上升,期权溢价已转向 ETF,最近的资金流入主要来自与零售相关的投资者和对冲基金。随着持仓现在变得拥挤,贬值交易可能接近拐点,道明证券(TDS)高级商品策略师丹尼尔·加利(Daniel Ghali)指出。

黄金的低配阶段似乎已经结束。13F 文件显示机构 ETF 持有量大幅上升,期权溢价已转向 ETF,最近的资金流入主要来自与零售相关的投资者和对冲基金。随着持仓现在变得拥挤,贬值交易可能接近拐点,道明证券(TDS)高级商品策略师丹尼尔·加利(Daniel Ghali)指出。

黄金持仓接近拐点

"黄金仍然低持有吗?在四月份,我们认为黄金被高估但持有不足。在缺乏 COT 数据补充我们专有的持仓分析工具的情况下,我们对 13F 文件的分析表明情况不再如此。"

"持有最大黄金 ETF 的机构数量在过去几个季度大幅增长:根据持有该 ETF 的机构绝对数量,它现在的受欢迎程度是历史上最受欢迎的 ETF 的 65%。它的机构持有比例与一些最受欢迎的 ETF 相当。ETF 的期权交易溢价于其 Comex 对应品种,扭转了疫情后趋势。"

"在过去几个季度中,最主要的资金流入机构类型是 (a) 与基础零售需求相关的机构和 (b) 对冲基金。听着,贬值交易在 2025 年是一个很好的交易。但现在,资金在黄金市场重新掌控,叙事可能在未来几个月达到拐点。"

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