TD Securities anticipates the FOMC will maintain current interest rates during its upcoming meeting, with potential for future cuts beginning in March. The report highlights a stronger GDP growth projection due to increased personal spending and tax refunds. Analysts note that economic activity may remain robust at the start of 2026, impacting the Fed's decision-making process. TD Securities Chief US Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz and US Macro Strategist Eli Nir note.

FOMC meeting and economic outlook

"We expect the FOMC to keep rates on hold this week with risk management cuts now over and policy closer to neutral. There is now a higher burden on the data to justify further easing."

"While Powell is likely to sound noncommittal around near term rate cuts, we expect him to remind market participants that the median Fed official still looks for easing this year."

"We expect the FOMC to keep rates on hold at their meeting this week. The low-hanging fruit of risk management rate cuts that sought to bring the policy stance closer to neutral are over."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)