The U.S. economy added 64,000 nonfarm jobs in November significantly above market expectations of 50,000 and reversing October’s sharp loss of 105,000 jobs. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021.
The U.S. Dollar Index briefly dropped to a two-month low while gold traded in a tight range near the key $4,300 level. If gold manages to close 2025 above $4,400, prices could rise further toward $4,859–$5,590 in 2026.
At the same time, the latest developments in the Russia–Ukraine conflict have provided gold with an additional layer of safe-haven support. Investors are closely watching upcoming CPI and PCE releases, as well as comments from Fed officials which together will shape gold’s short-term trajectory.
Economists caution that the standard error of the unemployment data is currently higher than normal.This meaning the figures should be interpreted carefully. Private sector employment has been rising by an average of 75,000 jobs per month, which is seen as a constructive sign for labor market health. However, in the bigger picture uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s aggressive trade policies is making employers more cautious about hiring.
Higher import tariffs are pushing up goods prices and weighing on consumer spending especially among low- and middle-income households. Flat October retail sales are a clear reflection of this caution. These mixed signals are leaving gold bulls somewhat conflicted: the rebound in jobs is helping the dollar trim losses, but the higher unemployment rate reinforces rate-cut expectations, supporting gold’s rebound from recent lows.
Fed funds futures now imply two more 25 bps cuts in 2026 for a total easing of 59 bps over the year. In a lower-rate environment, yield-less gold typically performs well as its opportunity cost declines while a weaker dollar further enhances its appeal.
Market View:
On the 4-hour chart, gold is staging a choppy rebound with MACD lines and histogram converging around the zero line. Investors are waiting for Thursday’s November CPI and Friday’s PCE data. If inflation prints come in soft, this will further cement expectations for rate cuts and could fuel an upside breakout in gold.
In the longer term, a low-rate environment combined with persistent global uncertainty is likely to continue underpinning gold’s upside potential.
