DBS Group Research economist Philip Weeargues that although risk aversion from the Iran conflict usually supports the Dollar, this time the USD’s haven appeal may prove short-lived. He points to a Fed pause versus G10 rate hikes and pressure on US Treasuries from rising fiscal concerns. The backdrop recalls last year’s credibility hit from Liberation Day tariffs.

Risk-off support offset by policy headwinds

"While risk aversion typically leads to a flight to the USD, this haven appeal may be short-lived."

"The USD faces a hawkish wall following last week’s central meetings, which pitted a series of G10 rate hikes against a Fed pause."

"Furthermore, US Treasury bonds are under pressure as fiscal concerns mount, driven by the Pentagon’s request for a substantial budget increase for the Iran conflict."

"This environment mirrors the credibility hit the USD sustained following last year’s Liberation Day tariffs, where the concurrent sell-off in US stocks and bonds underscored growing stagflation worries."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)