日元在政治不确定性中挣扎 - 荷兰国际集团
在日元(JPY)触底方面仍然困难重重。荷兰国际集团(ING)外汇分析师弗朗切斯科-佩索莱(Francesco Pesole)指出,关于首相高市早苗将解散国会并提前举行选举的猜测在周末持续上升。

在日元(JPY)触底方面仍然困难重重。荷兰国际集团(ING)外汇分析师弗朗切斯科-佩索莱(Francesco Pesole)指出,关于首相高市早苗将解散国会并提前举行选举的猜测在周末持续上升。

日本央行干预仅在更高水平上被视为可能

“理论上,这样的举动旨在确保更强的多数派,如果成功,通常会受到国内货币的欢迎。但目前,政治不确定性加剧了周五对美元/日元的投机性买入,财政部长的容忍区间继续受到考验。有趣的是,日元是G10中唯一未因美联储消息而上涨的货币。”

“根据日本在2024年7月的最新外汇干预,我们仍然认为可能更倾向于等待一个对美元不利的市场事件(之前是美国CPI报告疲软)来进行干预。干预开始时现货交易接近162,约高出当前157.9的2.5%。”

“如果美联储风险减弱,美元/日元仍面临上行风险,可能延伸至160——这一水平应该会看到一些阻力,因为一些人将其视为日本央行的分界线。”

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