On 21 January 2026, Intel’s share price soared 11.72% to close at USD 54.25, marking its highest level since January 2022. Year to date, the stock is up about 35%, and the company’s market cap has pushed past the USD 250 billion mark. Optimism has hit a crescendo ahead of Thursday’s after-hours earnings release, as Wall Street waits to see whether the chip giant’s turnaround under CEO Pat Gelsinger has truly moved onto a smoother path

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What’s Driving Intel’s Surge?

First, at the macro level, an easing in some geopolitical risks has helped fuel risk appetite. For example, recent comments from US President Donald Trump that he will not resort to the use of force over the Greenland issue have, to a degree, calmed market nerves.

At the sector level, Intel’s main competitors have been rallying as well: AMD shares climbed about 8%, while Micron Technology rose 7%, underscoring strong momentum across the broader chip complex. Behind this broad-based move is the robust, high-visibility demand created by the AI and data-centre build-out cycle. As Big Tech races to buy Nvidia GPUs to build AI compute, they are also forced to purchase large quantities of traditional server CPUs — Intel’s core stronghold.

Finally, for Intel itself, a series of long-term positives and short-term catalysts have converged ahead of earnings.

1. “High-Certainty Boom” in Data-Centre Demand

Analysts widely expect Intel’s Data Center and AI (DCAI) group to deliver a near 30% year-on-year jump in fourth-quarter revenue, to around USD 4.4 billion. More importantly, because demand continues to far outstrip supply, some investment banks have noted that Intel’s server CPUs are effectively “sold out” for the year, giving the company something it has not enjoyed for a long time: pricing power. As a result, server CPU prices could see double-digit increases in 2026.

2. “Historic Overtake” in Manufacturing Technology

Intel has recently rolled out its 18A manufacturing process and successfully deployed a key technology known as backside power delivery. This innovation can significantly improve chip performance-per-watt, and on current timelines Intel may be 6–12 months ahead of its largest foundry rival, TSMC, in bringing it into volume production. Many see this as a milestone signalling Intel’s return to the leading edge of process technology.

3.Capital and Strategy Receive “Strong Endorsements”

Over the past year, Intel has secured USD 8.9 billion in funding from the US government, along with USD 5 billion from Nvidia and USD 2 billion from SoftBank. These strategic investments have not only materially strengthened Intel’s balance sheet, but also sent a strong signal that key customers and national-level policymakers are aligned behind its long-term strategy.

What to Watch in the Earnings Report

Despite the bullish sentiment, Intel’s fundamentals are far from flawless. The upcoming earnings release will have to confront the company’s real-world challenges.

The market expects total fourth-quarter revenue of about USD 13.4 billion, which would still represent a year-on-year decline of roughly 6%. The core PC business remains sluggish, with growth projected at just 2.5%, and it continues to face intense competition from AMD and ARM-based architectures. On top of that, a global shortage of memory chips has driven up costs, potentially weighing on PC demand and adding further pressure to the segment.

Profitability is another key concern. Intel has been pouring money into reviving its manufacturing business, and as a result, its fourth-quarter adjusted gross margin is expected to remain under pressure, dropping around 6 percentage points to roughly 36.5%. Even though the 18A process has made important technical strides, yields are still in the early ramp-up phase, and it will take time before large-scale commercialisation translates into meaningful profits.

Even as the share price marches higher, Wall Street analysts are far from unanimous in their bullishness — and that divergence is itself part of the investment picture.

Over the past three months, at least ten brokerages have raised their price targets or upgraded their ratings on Intel, a sign that confidence in its turnaround story is gradually spreading.

However, according to aggregated data from TipRanks, the consensus rating on Intel is still only “Hold”. Among analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it a “Buy”, 19 a “Hold” and 4 a “Sell”.

The more cautious or bearish views centre on valuation and execution risk. Some argue that, after a more than 120% gain over the past year, Intel’s current valuation already fully — or even excessively — prices in a bullish scenario. In addition, the company’s massive transformation plan still faces significant execution challenges: it will take years of heavy investment before Intel’s foundry business can truly compete head-to-head with TSMC.