布伦特原油:供应风险使价格维持高位 – 德意志银行
德意志银行宏观策略团队指出,布伦特原油仍受到地缘政治紧张局势和供应担忧的支撑。特朗普总统关于霍尔木兹海峡的评论加剧了对长期中断的担忧,推动油价隔夜上涨。

德意志银行宏观策略团队指出,布伦特原油仍受地缘政治紧张局势和供应担忧的支撑。特朗普总统关于霍尔木兹海峡的言论加剧了对长期中断的担忧,推动油价隔夜上涨。尽管布伦特在前一交易日几乎持平,但晚盘的上涨促使市场对美联储预期进行了更偏鹰派的重新定价。

地缘政治与美联储重新定价推动油价

“截至今晨发稿时,市场动能已减弱,此前特朗普总统表示美国‘根本不需要’霍尔木兹海峡开放。这加剧了海峡将被封锁一段时间的担忧,导致全球经济面临更持久的能源冲击。”

“事实上,布伦特原油价格隔夜上涨了1.21%,达到107.00美元/桶。”

“与此同时,昨日油价变化不大,布伦特原油上涨0.09%,收于105.72美元/桶。”

“然而,油价在美国交易时段后期小幅上涨,这促使美联储预期出现更偏鹰派的重新定价。”

“例如,期货几乎完全计入了2027年6月前加息的可能性,目前计入了24个基点的紧缩(当日上涨5.6个基点)。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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